A Multidisciplinary White Paper
Estimating Lunar Construction
The Master Estimating Theory
System-Based Methods for Absolute Minimum Variance to the Predicted State
Concept for Lunar Surface Logistics and Infrastructure. Image credit: NASA.
About This White Paper
Published September 2026 in Estimating Today, American Society of Professional Estimators
From the Executive Summary
“The return to the Moon presents one of the most demanding estimating challenges ever undertaken. Yet even terrestrial megaprojects, supported by experienced teams, established technologies, mature supply chains, and extensive historical knowledge, continue to experience substantial cost and schedule uncertainties. Although the construction industry strives to improve the accuracy of the estimating process, megaprojects statistically continue to surpass their original estimate predictions.”
Authors
- Paul Martin (UC Davis)
- Stephen Fehr, Ph.D. (NASA)
- Jennifer Taylor (HDR)
- Rifka Malik, CPE, CPESC (Sitework Estimating Services)
- Patrick Duke (Turner & Townsend)
- John Harvey, Ph.D. (UC Davis)
- Jay Lund, Ph.D. (UC Davis)
- Richard Whittle, Ph.D. (UC Davis)
- Ireland Brown, Ph.D. Candidate (MIT)
- Jason Pieck, Ph.D. Student (UC Davis)
- Vishesh Singh, Ph.D. (Active Estimating, Inc.)
- Brad Hyatt, Ph.D. (CSU Fresno)
- Kent Hedges (Jacobs)
- Fred Callison (Rudolph and Sletten)
- Keith Stout (US Air Force)
Recommended Citation
Martin, P., S. Fehr, J. Taylor, R. Malik, P. Duke, J. Harvey, J. Lund, R. Whittle, I. Brown, J. Pieck, V. Singh, B. Hyatt, K. Hedges, F. Callison, and K. Stout (2026), “Estimating Lunar Construction – The Master Estimating Theory: System-Based Methods for Absolute Minimum Variance to the Predicted State”, Estimating Today, American Society of Professional Estimators, September 2026.
Read the Full White Paper
Download the complete 45-page white paper.